Alan Greenspan Quotes About Probability

Quotes about: Probability

• Given our inevitably incomplete knowledge about key structural aspects of our ever-changing economy and the sometimes asymmetric costs or benefits of particular outcomes, a central bank... need to consider not only the most likely future path for the economy but also the distribution of possible outcomes about that path. They then need to reach a judgment about the probabilities, costs, and benefits of the various possible outcomes under alternative choices for policy.

  Alan Greenspan

  Keys, Incomplete Knowledge, Choices

  "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty". Alan Greenspan's Remarks At a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, www.federalreserve.gov. August 29, 2003.

• The probability of ten consecutive heads is 0.1 percent; thus, when you have millions of coin tossers, or investors, in the end there will be thousands of very successful practitioners of coin tossing, or stock picking.

  Alan Greenspan

  Successful, Coins, Tossers

  Alan Greenspan (2008). “The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World”, p.465, Penguin

• People dont realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but thats as far as we go. And Ive had a very successful career as a forecaster, starting in 1948 forward. The number of mistakes I have made are just awesome. There is no number large enough to account for that.

  Alan Greenspan

  Mistake, Successful, Careers

• The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.

  Alan Greenspan

  Zero, United States, Debt

• History cannot be reduced to a set of statistics and probabilities.

  Alan Greenspan

  Statistics, Probability

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