People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.
You don't want to treat any one person as oracular.
It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis.
Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately.
I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.
The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.
I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have.
Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
A lot of the time nothing happens in a day.
I don't think you should limit what you read.
A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.
I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
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