We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that.
You don't want to treat any one person as oracular.
I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
A lot of the time nothing happens in a day.
Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.
I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.
Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately.
I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have.
The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.
I don't think you should limit what you read.
Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis.
Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.
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