Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
People have different ways of interpreting history.
New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
I've just always been a bit of a dork.
I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.
I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news.
A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view.
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.
The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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