Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.
I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have.
I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately.
I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.
Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent signal or noise
Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
You don't want to treat any one person as oracular.
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