Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
People have different ways of interpreting history.
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Racism is predictable. It's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.
I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have.
I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.
Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.
I don't think you should limit what you read.
Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don’t have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically,
We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning.
Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
You don't want to treat any one person as oracular.
We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.
If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
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