Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
People have different ways of interpreting history.
We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.
I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.
I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.
Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately.
I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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