That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
We deeply want to be led by people who know what they're doing and who don't have to think about it too much.
Some achieve a reputation for great successes when in fact all they have done is take chances that reasonable people wouldn't take.
Lucky risk takers use hindsight to reinforce their feeling that their gut is very wise. Hindsight also reinforces others' trust in that individual's gut.
The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
An executive might have a very strong intuition that a given product has promise, without considering the probability that a rival is already ahead in developing the same product.
In strategic decisions, I'd be really concerned about overconfidence.
Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
One of the problems with expertise is that people have it in some domains and not in others.
I would be wary of experts' intuition, except when they deal with something that they have dealt with a lot in the past.
Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
You should not take your intuitions at face value.
There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
When you are under time pressure for a decision, you need to follow intuition.
If you can't take the time for a vacation right now, or even a night out with friends, put something on the calendar - even if it's a month or a year down the road. Then whenever you need a boost of happiness, remind yourself about it.
Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
One study found that people who just thought about watching their favorite movie actually raised their endorphin levels by 27 percent.
Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
Every night for the next week, set aside ten minutes before you go to sleep. Write down three things that went well today and why they went well...Writing about why the positive events in your life happened may seem awkward at first, but please stick with it for one week. It will get easier. The odds are that you will be less depressed, happier, and addicted to this exercise six months from now.
Each additional day together is a gift. The end of the day means the end of hostilities, the recognition that the underlying shared values and commitment to the relationship trump the need for one last dig or self-righteous justification.
Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
Ten minutes of a smartphone in front of your nose is about the equivalent of an hour long walk in bright daylight. Imagine going for an hour long walk in bright daylight and then thinking, "Now I'll get some sleep." It ain't going to happen.
If there was one ubiquitous recommendation about marriage it was this: "Don't go to bed angry."
A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.
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