Forecasts Quotes - Page 5

• Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or
  thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in
  a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the
  single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When
  we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document
  the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently
  large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.

  Nate Silver

  Views, Errors, Annoyed

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• The major changes that will be occurring within the new merged partnership are exciting in many ways. First, we will have the highest forecast distribution growth rate of any of the major MLPs. Second, our coverage will be above average for the same peer group with expected $1.1 billion of excess cash flow coverage through 2017 and the Access cash flows, along with our major new fee based projects continue to dramatically reduce exposure to commodity prices.

  Alan Armstrong

  Commodity Prices, Cash Flow, Average

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• Trying to keep up with health advice can feel like surfing the Net for weather forecasts: what you find is always changing, often contradictory and rarely encouraging.

  Julian Baggini

  Weather, Advice, Surfing

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• Why is the forecast so bland? Why instead of 'stormy' don't they just say the sea's 'a frothing maelstrom of terror and hopelessness'?

  Jeremy Clarkson

  Sea, Maelstrom, Hopelessness

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• Champions know that success is inevitable, that there is no such thing as failure, only feedback. They know that the best way to forecast the future is to create it.

  Michael J. Gelb

  Failure, Exercise, Champion

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• Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life. The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised.

  Warren Buffett

  Moving, Taken, Simple

  Warren Buffett (2009). “Warren Buffett on Business: Principles from the Sage of Omaha”, p.220, John Wiley & Sons

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• The population forecast for the United States in 1970 is 170 million. The population forecast for Russia alone in 1970 is 251 million. The implications are clear.

  Emanuel Celler

  Pregnancy, Russia, United States

  Emanuel Celler (1953). “You Never Leave Brooklyn: The Autobiography of Emanuel Celler”

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• I don't read economic forecasts. I don't read the funny papers.

  Warren Buffett

  Investing, Paper, Economic

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• The most important thing is to forecast where customers are moving, and be in front of them.

  Philip Kotler

  Moving, Important, Customers

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• If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you've wasted 10 minutes

  Peter Lynch

  Risk, Analyzing, Management

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• It is absurd to think that the general public can ever make money out of market forecasts.

  Benjamin Graham

  Thinking, Investing, Making Money

  Benjamin Graham (1959). “The Intelligent Investor: A Book of Practical Counsel”

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• I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma: but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.

  Winston Churchill

  Keys, Russia, Action

  Radio broadcast, 1 Oct. 1939

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• [T]he man who, in the concrete pressure of a struggle for national independence by a single people, had the coolness, forecast, and capacity to introduce into a merely revolutionary document, an abstract truth, applicable to all men and all times, and so to embalm it there, that to-day, and in all coming days, it shall be a rebuke and a stumbling-block to the very harbingers of reappearing tyranny and oppression.

  Abraham Lincoln

  Block, Struggle, Men

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• Nobody, 20 years ago, forecast the Internet.

  Bryan Appleyard

  Years, Years Ago, Internet

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• The MD is well aware that the forecasts are no good but he needs them for planning purposes.

  Kenneth Arrow

  Needs, Purpose, Planning

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• I never make forecasts but whoever wins that game will win the final.

  Ken Bates

  Football, Winning, Games

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• Auto repair, piloting, skiing, perhaps even management: these are skills that yield to application, hard work, and native talent. But forecasting an uncertain future and deciding the best course of action in the face of that future are much less likely to do so. And much of what we've seen so far suggests that a large group of diverse individuals will come up with better and more robust forecasts and make more intelligent decisions than even the most skilled "decision maker."

  James Surowiecki

  Hard Work, Intelligent, Skills

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• There will be days when the fishing is better than one's most optimistic forecast, others when it is far worse. Either is a gain over just staying home.

  Roderick Haig-Brown

  Home, Optimistic, Fishing

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• Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don’t have—in their portfolio.

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  Portfolios, Opinion, Recommendations

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2012). “Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder”, p.389, Random House

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• One cannot divine nor forecast the conditions that will make happiness; one only stumbles upon them by chance, in a lucky hour, at the world's end somewhere, and hold fast to the days.

  Willa Cather

  Happiness, Lucky, World

  "Willa Cather in Europe". Book by Willa Cather, 1956.

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• Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning.

  George Carlin

  Funny, Morning, Dark

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• All right, kids. We’re going to a party where they don’t like us very much. Everyone know what they’re doing? (Sin) Not a clue, but I think certain death and dismemberment is in my forecast, followed by a light rain of guys and flayed skin. (Kish)

  Sherrilyn Kenyon

  Party, Rain, Kids

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• Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what's actually happening to the companies in which you've invested

  Peter Lynch

  Economy, Interest, Rate

  Peter Lynch (2012). “Beating the Street”, p.307, Simon and Schuster

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• This is my long-run forecast in brief: The material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely. Within a century or two, all nations and most of humanity will be at or above today's Western living standards. I also speculate, however, that many people will continue to think and say that the conditions of life are getting worse.

  Julian Simon

  Running, Country, Thinking

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• There is only one more thing for me to say: Please help make my forecast wrong.  Together we could create a much better world.

  Jørgen Randers

  Together, World, Helping

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